Narsimha Sowed After the First Rain. The Second One Came Three Weeks Late.

The first real rain came on a Thursday night in the second week of June.

Narsimha heard it on the tin roof of the cattle shed and lay awake listening, the way every rainfed farmer in Mahabubnagar does in June. It rained hard for nearly an hour. In the morning the red soil of his five acres was dark and soft, and the air smelt of wet earth.

By Saturday, half the village was sowing. Tractors were out, bullocks were out, and the seed shop in town had a queue. Narsimha bought his cotton seed packets and the redgram for the intercrop rows, and on Monday his family sowed all five acres.

The cotton came up beautifully. Neat green pairs of leaves, row after row.

Then the sky emptied.

For three weeks there was hardly a cloud. Hot wind blew from the west every afternoon. The seedlings held on for a few days, then wilted at noon, then did not recover in the evening. By the first week of July, more than half the field had gone.

He re-sowed in July. Seed again, labour again, close to ₹18,000 he had not planned to spend, most of it borrowed.

The rain had come. What had not come was the monsoon.

Why is the first rain not the right time to sow?

Because one heavy shower wets only the top few centimetres of soil, and the monsoon often pauses after it arrives. Seeds germinate in that top layer, and if a dry spell follows, the young roots have no moisture below to reach for.

Early-season pre-monsoon or onset showers are common in Telangana and Rayalaseema. So are breaks of one to three weeks after them. A farmer who sows on the first shower is betting that the next rain will come before the seedlings run out of water.

How do you check if there is enough moisture to sow?

Dig and look. The surface can look wet after one night of rain while the soil a hand-span below is still dry.

Two simple field checks:

1. The spade test. Dig a small pit with a spade or khurpi in a few places across the field. Look at the colour and feel the soil. You want moist, dark soil to at least a hand-span deep, around 15 centimetres or more, not just a wet crust over dry soil.
2. The fist test. Take a handful of soil from that depth and squeeze it. If it holds together in a ball and leaves your palm slightly damp, there is useful moisture. If it crumbles and falls apart, it is still too dry.

Many agriculture advisories also suggest waiting until the total rain since the monsoon set in has reached a certain amount, often somewhere in the range of 50 to 75 millimetres for many rainfed crops. The right figure depends on your soil and crop, so follow your local agriculture department's advisory for your district. Black soils hold water longer. Red, sandy soils like Narsimha's lose it faster and need more caution.

How should you read a weather forecast before sowing?

Look at the next 7 to 10 days, not just today and tomorrow. You are not asking "will it rain?", you are asking "is there a long dry spell coming?"

Things to look for:

• Rain spread over several days, not one heavy day followed by sunshine.
• The chance of rain, not just the amount. A 70% chance means more than a 20% chance.
• Hot, dry wind in the forecast, which dries the topsoil fast.
• District agromet advisories, issued regularly by the India Meteorological Department with agricultural universities, which often say directly whether conditions suit sowing.
• Whether the monsoon has settled over your region, which the weather department announces.

The next season, Narsimha's daughter, who works at a hospital in Mahabubnagar town, put Mapis Farming on his phone. It gave him local weather advice for his own village, in Telugu: rain expected in the coming days, dry spells, and what that meant for his work in the field. In June, when the first shower came again, the advice was to hold off, because the coming days looked mostly dry.

This time, he waited. So did a few of his neighbours, after seeing what happened the year before.

What should you do if a dry spell comes after sowing?

Act early, and have a plan B ready before you sow. The worst decisions come from waiting too long and then panicking.

• Watch the seedlings daily. Note how many rows are wilting and whether they recover in the evening.
• Gap filling. If only some seedlings die and rain returns soon, fill the gaps by hand rather than re-sowing the whole field.
• Light hoeing between rows breaks the surface crust and slows moisture loss. Ask your officer whether it suits your crop and soil.
• Save some seed. Buy for your whole field, but keep some aside for gap filling.
• Know your re-sowing cut-off date. After a certain date, a long-duration crop may not mature before the rains end. Ask your agriculture office.
• Have a short-duration option. If sowing is delayed badly, a shorter-duration variety, or a different crop like a pulse or millet, can still make use of the rest of the season. Read about millets as a low-water crop option.

Research institutes prepare district contingency plans for rainfed areas that list what to sow if the monsoon is delayed. Your Mandal Agriculture Officer or Krishi Vigyan Kendra can tell you what your district's plan suggests.

Dry spells and failed sowing can also matter for crop insurance. Keep dated photos and notes, and see how records help with a crop insurance claim. Check the current scheme rules with your agriculture office.

What happened when Narsimha waited

That year, the first shower came in mid-June again, and then a short break of about ten days. Narsimha used the time to finish ploughing and to check his soil with a spade every few days.

When a second spell of rain came, steady over three days, he dug again and found moist soil well past a hand-span deep. The weather advice for the week ahead showed more rain likely. He sowed on the fourth day.

The crop was not perfect. A dry week in late July stressed it, and he did some gap filling in one corner. But he did not lose the field, and he did not re-sow.

He sowed about ten days later than some of his neighbours. A few of them re-sowed again that year. He did not.

"Earlier I sowed when my neighbour sowed. Now I sow when my soil is ready."

Frequently asked questions

When is the right time to sow cotton in rainfed areas?

Sow when the monsoon has settled and the soil is moist to at least a hand-span deep, not after the first shower. Many advisories suggest waiting for enough cumulative rain to build up soil moisture, and the exact amount and dates vary by district. Follow your local agriculture department's advisory and check the forecast for a dry spell before sowing.

How can I tell if my soil has enough moisture for sowing?

Dig a small pit and check whether the soil is moist and dark to around 15 centimetres or more. Squeeze a handful from that depth: if it holds together as a ball, there is useful moisture. If only the top few centimetres are wet, wait for more rain.

What should I do if there is a dry spell after sowing?

Watch the seedlings daily and act early. If only some plants die and rain returns soon, fill the gaps by hand instead of re-sowing the whole field. If the dry spell is long, ask your agriculture officer about your district's contingency plan, including short-duration varieties or alternative crops.

How far ahead should I check the weather forecast before sowing?

Look at the forecast for the next 7 to 10 days, not just the next day. You want to see rain spread over several days and no long dry spell ahead. District agromet advisories from the weather department are also useful because they speak directly about sowing conditions.

Does Mapis Farming give weather advice for my village?

Yes. Mapis Farming gives local weather advice for your location, in English or Telugu, including expected rain and dry spells and what they mean for field work like sowing and spraying. It is free to use once you create an account.